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I have been talking about AI and making limited predictions about it for nearly 10 years now, but some new ideas and thoughts have come out recently that I want to comment and expand on.

I'm specifically speaking of the wondrous conversation between Leopold Aschennbrenner and Dwarkesh Patel, and Leopold's collection of essays he recently released on the topic of AI safety (my summary here).

That’s what kicked off a bunch of ideas, and I now have so many I need to make a list.

Table of Contents

So that’s what I’m going to cover in this long post, done in the jumping style of my annual Frontview Mirror pieces that I do for members.

How I see the ladder path to ASI / Consciousness

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